Need an explenation about moving lines..

[james]

Hi, I would like if possible for someone to explain to me what factors people use to determine their over/under bets on NBA. The reason I'm asking is because there's times when I've bet and the line moves by up to 5 points but in the other direction lol, if I had waited I could've bet at a better line.(or maybe I should've been betting in the other direction in the first place lol)

Here's an example last night the lines for Raptors/Kincks came out at over/under 202.. today the line is 198 (bet365.com)

now i didn't bet this one but a lot of people obviously must've thought the game will be under for it to move that much, so my question is why? The last two games these teams played were both over at 202 and at 210. I checked the averages for both teams totals in all their games and they are less.

As you can see I'm a total noobie and confused, I'm pretty sure knowing which way the lines are most likely to move (by knowing which way to bet in the first place ) is going to result in me not loosing as much money so please help or point me in the right direction if you can.

THANKS.

 

[sherman]

Hi, I would like if possible for someone to explain to me what factors people use to determine their over/under bets on NBA. The reason I'm asking is because there's times when I've bet and the line moves by up to 5 points but in the other direction lol, if I had waited I could've bet at a better line.(or maybe I should've been betting in the other direction in the first place lol)

Here's an example last night the lines for Raptors/Kincks came out at over/under 202.. today the line is 198 (bet365.com)

now i didn't bet this one but a lot of people obviously must've thought the game will be under for it to move that much, so my question is why? The last two games these teams played were both over at 202 and at 210. I checked the averages for both teams totals in all their games and they are less.

As you can see I'm a total noobie and confused, I'm pretty sure knowing which way the lines are most likely to move (by knowing which way to bet in the first place ) is going to result in me not loosing as much money so please help or point me in the right direction if you can.

THANKS.

james i would think you will get 98 answers from 100 different people on why or how they cap games....

i dunno, maybe someone can give u better answer...

good luck

 

[t3a]

Here are a couple things you might consider on line moves:

First, you should have some way to make your own lines or else have a way to figure out whether the opening number is good or not. If you don't want to keep power ratings or something like that for all the teams, you can at least look at recent games that might be similar - for instance on the Raptors game you checked their other games vs the Knicks, you can see what the totals were set in those games. Then see if tonight's game has any factors where the line should be different - such as Raptors having traded Vince Carter since then. If you have a good starting point you can bet against the posted number and not be concerned with the way the line moves. Just because the line moves 'against' you doesn't mean you are on the wrong side. Books can move a line to attract action, to sucker people in on a bad side, becuase they have some info (like someone is hurt or sick) that you don't have, or becuase the public is hammering one side. Using a football game for example last week I like NE-2.5, I was confident they would win by more than a FG. That line moved against me because it was down to pick em at game time. That just gave me opportunity to bet some more on them at that price. I guess the point is that the line moving doesn't mean you are on the wrong side.

If you need some free stats go to a site like scoresandodds and then click the Match up link . That should also help you get an idea about whether a line is weak or not.

 

[james]

thanks guys, I've actually been reading a lot and learning a bit. I mostly like MMA fights but since events come along about once a month I get a bit restless so I thought I'd give basketball a try, used to love the game

 

[james]

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